Five decades after regional geopolitical order changed forever

FIFTY years ago this week, a collective shudder rippled through South-east Asia. On Apr 30, 1975, Saigon as it was known then, fell to the North Vietnamese Army and their local supporters, shattering long-held assumptions about the geopolitical order in this part of the world. Even so, most regional leaders remained sangfroid. Others were unnerved and told their children to consider leaving for safety.

The ruling elites in Washington and many in this region had swallowed the so-called Domino Theory hook, line and sinker. It was Washington’s overarching rationale for getting involved in what was essentially a local anti-colonial uprising. Worse, the theory, such as it was, had been based on a toddler’s understanding of how to play the game: set up domino tiles upright, all in a row, and knock down the last one and watch all the others topple in succession. Such fun – if you are a two-year-old. Suffice it to say, the adult version of dominoes required somewhat more intellectual horsepower and would not have yielded such a silly analogy.

In the event, rather than the rest of South-east Asia falling under the sway of communism one by one, as theory predicted, Vietnam eventually joined Asean. Nor was there anything resembling the widely predicted bloodbath after the South Vietnam’s ruling generals fled. As Associated Press reporter George Esper, who remained behind to continue his work, noted at that time: “The official line from the United States government in the waning days was that there would be a bloodbath. I saw no bloodbath.”