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The four ‘O’s that shape a bubble

And what this test tells us about the artificial intelligence wave

Summarise
    • While signs point to an advanced-stage bubble in AI, history shows that there is no exact point at which a bubble bursts under its own weight, the writer notes.
    • While signs point to an advanced-stage bubble in AI, history shows that there is no exact point at which a bubble bursts under its own weight, the writer notes. PHOTO: AFP

    Ruchir Sharma

    Published Tue, Dec 16, 2025 · 06:45 PM

    AMID the chatter about artificial intelligence (AI) mania, people have begun to joke about “a bubble in bubble talk”.

    Google searches for AI with the b-word have surged and the mood in the markets feels exuberant, but beyond these soft indicators there is no standard measure of a bubble.

    My test focuses on four Os: overvaluation, over-ownership, over-investment and over-leverage. Here’s how AI scores now:

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