French far right at ‘gates of power’

FRANCE is one of only two big European Union nations, alongside Germany, that has not been governed by populists in the post-1945 era. However, that could change after the first round of legislative elections to the National Assembly on Sunday (Jun 30) put the far-right, eurosceptic National Rally (RN) in pole position to win a run-off ballot this weekend.

Sunday’s high turnout vote, and the forthcoming second round, could therefore become the most consequential French ballots since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958, with the potential to further rattle financial markets after June’s market volatility. This is particularly so as RN had never come close to winning a first round parliamentary election before Sunday, and it is now at the gates of power, with clear momentum to assume the prime ministership and form the next government as soon as next week.

The RN’s surge since the last parliament election in 2022 is astonishing. On Sunday, the party secured around 12 million ballots in the first round, more than a third of the overall vote share, compared with the roughly 4.2 million ballots it took at the same stage in 2022.

If centrist President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble was that the snap poll would see a switchback towards the centre after the RN’s triumph in the European Parliament election three weeks ago, the opposite is true. The RN looks very likely now not just to have the largest number of legislators in the next National Assembly, but also possibly of getting an outright majority – that is 289 seats.

The key question that will determine the final figures in the run-off on Jul 7 is not just turnout, which was an estimated 65.5 per cent on Sunday. This was the highest in a parliamentary election since 1997, reflecting the high stakes at play.

It will also depend upon strategic choices now by the two other main parties. That is the green-leftist New Popular Front (NFP), which emerged in a strong second place on Sunday with just under 28 per cent of the vote, comfortably ahead of Macron’s Ensemble centrist alliance which scored around 21 per cent.

In recent French legislative elections, the vast majority of second-round run-offs (which are triggered when no candidate secures 50 per cent of the first-round vote) sees contests between two leading contenders. However, the number of three-way run-offs may increase dramatically on Jul 7 (potentially splitting the non-far right vote, and favouring the RN) due to the big reduction in first-round candidates in 2024 as parties concentrate themselves in the leftist, centrist and far-right blocs, increasing the chances of contenders getting the threshold of at least 12.5 per cent to advance to the second round.

Traditionally, in such three-way run-offs where RN is in the lead from the first round, the third-placed candidate has withdrawn so as not to split the opposition vote against the far right, enabling tactical voting. On Sunday, senior figures in the left-green NFP alliance pledged that in all constituencies where RN finished first, and the NFP candidate third, the NFP candidate will now withdraw.

Macron’s Ensemble, however, has been less clear-cut about what it will do. So far, it has only pledged to examine each constituency on a case-by-case basis, and only withdraw those Ensemble candidates who are perceived to have no chance of winning.

While there is still uncertainty about how the Jul 7 vote will pan out, it already looks likely to be a huge slap in the face for Macron. His handpicked Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will probably be forced to resign, and the president will then have two big choices.

First, he could potentially limp on in office until 2027 during a period of so-called “co-habitation” with a government of a different political stripe (probably led by RN). Or, much more unlikely, he could resign like Charles De Gaulle did in 1969.

Macron’s supporters argue that, damaging as an RN prime minister and government would be after Jul 7, the president’s eyes are on an even bigger issue for France: the presidential election in 2027. From this perspective, if RN does form a government in July with powers over domestic policy, including tax and spending, this could undercut the party’s popularity as it faces difficult decisions in a tight fiscal context.

Many Macron allies argue that this outcome, in which RN experiences the reality of holding power rather than shouting from the sidelines, may decrease the possibility of a RN presidential victory in 2027. The party’s candidate, Marine Le Pen, had finished second behind Macron in the last two such ballots in 2017 and 2022.

However, Macron supporters also assert that, if RN remains outside of power in the three years till the 2027 elections, Le Pen could continue to become more popular and win the presidency, even comfortably. This would be a massive blow to Macron’s legacy, potentially dealing a fatal blow to “Macronism” as a political project.

In the face of this political shadow-boxing, markets reacted very negatively in June to the French election uncertainty. In part, this is because of the huge spending commitments previously outlined by RN.

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire even cited the possibility of a “Truss-style scenario” (referencing former UK prime minister Liz Truss and the crisis in the bond markets that ultimately led to her departure from 10 Downing Street in October 2022, after less than 50 days in office). In turn, there are fears this could spark a new financial crisis in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

There is also a possibility of major political dysfunction in Paris between Macron and a possible RN government. This includes over foreign policy, traditionally the domain of the president as commander-in-chief.

For instance, Le Pen, who is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sympathisers in France, has highlighted that RN would seek to circumscribe Macron over policy towards Ukraine. RN may also pick a fight with Macron over the appointment of France’s next European commissioner, a role historically seen as within the president’s prerogative to approve.

Macron is advocating for his ally, Thierry Breton, to get a second term. RN, however, insists it would be for the next government to choose France’s EU commissioner. In recent days, the party said the appointment would be one of “the first decisions” it makes if it forms the next government.

Taken together, significant uncertainty remains about Jul 7’s result. However, RN’s strong showing gives it growing momentum to form the next government, and with a possible majority in the National Assembly.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics