French far right at ‘gates of power’

FRANCE is one of only two big European Union nations, alongside Germany, that has not been governed by populists in the post-1945 era. However, that could change after the first round of legislative elections to the National Assembly on Sunday (Jun 30) put the far-right, eurosceptic National Rally (RN) in pole position to win a run-off ballot this weekend.

Sunday’s high turnout vote, and the forthcoming second round, could therefore become the most consequential French ballots since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958, with the potential to further rattle financial markets after June’s market volatility. This is particularly so as RN had never come close to winning a first round parliamentary election before Sunday, and it is now at the gates of power, with clear momentum to assume the prime ministership and form the next government as soon as next week.

The RN’s surge since the last parliament election in 2022 is astonishing. On Sunday, the party secured around 12 million ballots in the first round, more than a third of the overall vote share, compared with the roughly 4.2 million ballots it took at the same stage in 2022.