The future of world order
Are we entering a totally new period of US decline, or are the second Trump administration’s attacks on the institutions and alliances that defined the American Century just another cyclical disruption?
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump has cast serious doubts on the future of the postwar international order. In recent speeches and United Nations votes, his administration has sided with Russia, an aggressor that launched a war of conquest against its peaceful neighbour, Ukraine. His tariff threats have raised questions about longstanding alliances and the future of the global trading system, and his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and World Health Organization has undercut cooperation on transnational threats.
The prospect of a wholly disengaged, self-focused United States has troubling implications for world order. It is easy to imagine Russia taking advantage of the situation to try to dominate Europe through the exercise or threat of force. Europe will have to show greater unity and provide for its own defence, even if a US backstop will remain important. Likewise, it is easy to imagine China asserting itself more in Asia, where it openly seeks dominance over its neighbours. Those neighbours will surely have taken note.
In fact, all countries will be affected, because the relationships among states and other major transnational actors are interconnected. An international order rests on a stable distribution of power among states; norms that influence and legitimise conduct; and shared institutions. A given international order can evolve incrementally without leading to a clear paradigm shift. But if the preeminent power’s domestic politics change too radically, all bets are off.
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