G20 Turkey at pivot point as elections approach

THIS is a momentous year for G20 state Turkey, and not only because 2023 marks the 100th anniversary of the republic.

There are multiple plausible political and economic scenarios after next week’s presidential and legislative elections which could see the departure from power of President Recep Erdogan, who has been in office since 2003, firstly as prime minister then as president. This year may also be key, finance-wise, given the current parlous state of the economy following the impact of Erdogan’s unorthodox policies which have increased inflation and devalued the currency.

Add to this the potential inflection point that Turkey is at with its international relations. Erdogan’s foreign policy was predominantly pro-Western during his prime ministership from 2003 to 2014, and much of his presidential term from 2014 to 2018. However, a turning point began with the 2016 attempted coup, since which Erdogan has also had cordial ties with states, especially Russia, that are not US- and EU allies, in what he calls his independent foreign policy.