The Great Game all over again, this time in the Pacific
IF EVER there was doubt that great powers want a rerun of the 19th century Great Game – this time over island nations of the Pacific – events at last week’s Pacific Islands Forum meeting have put it to rest.
China got its way when it persuaded the gathering’s leaders to scrub all references to Taiwan in the final declaration. The United States and its allies got their way, when the meeting endorsed the Pacific Policing Initiative that aims to build capacity to meet the islands’ internal security needs. This is a plan to set up police-training facilities and keep ready a pool of trained officers to rush in if any Pacific country needs such help. Australia will help run the scheme and has pledged A$400 million (S$353 million) to pay for it. But Canberra was quick to proclaim that the idea for the scheme had come from the islands’ leaders themselves.
That may well be true, but it would be naive to assume that the initiative wasn’t a reaction to the deal the Solomon Islands struck with Beijing in 2022. Then China had pledged to help Honiara to maintain social order, provide aid during natural disasters and help safeguard national security. Although Beijing was at pains to reassure everyone that the agreement was transparent, open and inclusive and not directed at any third party, it set off a wave of conniption in Canberra and Washington.
The US State Department warned that the pact “leaves open the door for the deployment of PRC military forces to the Solomon Islands” and set a “concerning precedent for the wider Pacific Island region”. Washington then hastily reopened its embassy in Honiara that had been shut for three decades.
So, it is clear that for every move Beijing makes to cement ties with Pacific Island nations, there would be a counter-move by Washington and its allies to lock it out of the region.
None of this is to say that the Pacific Island countries are without agency. For instance, the meeting’s final communique, while backing the policing plan, noted that some may need to first conduct their own “national consultation” on the scheme first. The islanders also pushed their own concerns over climate change. The Pacific’s coral reefs and low-lying islands are threatened by rising seas. They resolved to hold a “global pledging event” this year to raise cash for a home-grown climate fund with a US$500 million target.
The crisis in New Caledonia came in for sharp scrutiny as well. A French plan to extend voting rights to people settled there for more than 10 years triggered riots in May, with 11 people killed. The proposal has since been shelved. But the native Kanaks, who make up 41 per cent of the population, want nothing less than full independence from Paris. They see the original proposal as a way to dilute their voting strength and to render them a marginalised minority in a colonial settler state. An islander-led delegation will soon go on a fact-finding mission to the French colony even though Paris seems determined to maintain the status quo. Neither Beijing nor Washington had much to say about this situation.
It is good to note from the proceedings of the forum’s summit that the people of the Pacific Islands do seek to put their own agenda first and won’t settle for being mere pawns on a great power chessboard.
