Growing global expectations of second Trump presidency

MUCH of the world outside the US, with some exceptions such as Russia, Hungary and Turkey, had long favoured a second term for President Joe Biden. However, there is now growing international acknowledgement that Donald Trump is poised to win.

This growing global acknowledgement that the presidential race has been reshaped reflects not only Biden’s recent poor debate performance, but also the aftermath of the horrific assassination attempt against Trump on Saturday (Jul 13).

While the full impact is still unclear of that deplorable incident, which has been rightly condemned on a bipartisan basis, it is most likely to benefit Trump poll-wise, at least in the immediate term. After the most recent comparable assassination attempt, more than four decades ago, Ronald Reagan benefitted from significantly higher approval ratings.

There is thus growing global expectation that Trump’s campaign has momentum, barring any big further change in the race, which cannot be ruled out. This jars with research, including by Pew, which finds that internationally, Biden is viewed much more positively.

Across the more than 40,000 people polled in 34 nations by Pew in data released last month, for instance, a median of 43 per cent have confidence in Biden to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while just 28 per cent have the same faith in Trump.

The gap between ratings is especially wide in Europe. Biden’s confidence rating is at least 40 percentage points higher than Trump’s in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden.

Asia-Pacific is another notable continent in the findings, with Japan having 29 percentage points greater confidence in Biden, Australia, 20, and Singapore, a 12 percentage point gap. In India, meanwhile, the margin was a smaller 2 percentage points in Biden’s favour.

Given the growing prospect of a Trump presidency, international audiences are increasingly engaging Republicans, including at this week’s presidential nomination convention in Milwaukee. What is particularly being watched for are signals over who will be key officials in any new Trump top team, including his choice of vice-presidential running mate.

Trump’s pick has become even more important after Saturday’s attempted assassination. This despite a traditional view of the vice-presidential office which was summarised by John Nance Garner – who held the post from 1933 to 1941 under Franklin Roosevelt – who asserted that “vice-presidents never get to go anywhere... the office is not worth a bucket of warm spit”.

Trump’s choice is being widely watched, internationally, for two big reasons. Firstly, the vice-presidency has assumed more power and resourcing in recent decades with recent office holders, such as Biden (2009 to 2017), Dick Cheney (2001 to 2009) and Al Gore (1993 to 2001), among the most influential in history.

Indeed, Cheney, who was a predominant voice in many of George W Bush’s decisions, including the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, is widely viewed as the most powerful-ever holder of the office. Meanwhile, Biden and Gore played a major role in US domestic and foreign policy, too.

The power enjoyed by these three, especially, reflects not just their own strong experience and relationships with Barack Obama, Bush, and Bill Clinton, respectively.

It also is a function of the increased status of the vice-presidency which, as well as being reflected in larger staff budgets, also includes greater proximity to the centre of power through a West Wing office in the White House; weekly one-on-one meetings with the president; and authority to attend all presidential meetings.

Secondly, the office has become perhaps the single best transitional step to the presidency, as Biden exemplifies. So, with Trump and Biden term-limited after a second four years, the next vice-president could be on a potential “fast track” to enter the Oval Office at the election in 2028, or potentially in the 2030s.

Since 1960, four sitting vice-presidents (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968; Walter Mondale in 1984; and Gore in 2000) won their respective party’s presidential nomination, but then lost the election. Meanwhile, three vice-presidents have been elected president (Nixon in 1968, George HW Bush in 1988, and Biden in 2020).

Moreover, Saturday’s assassination attempt shows that the next vice-president also has a chance of assuming the top job between 2025 and 2029, in the event of the incumbent’s death or incapacity. This could arise from natural causes, given the advanced age of Biden (81) and Trump (78), the oldest presidential candidates ever.

History underlines the crucial international role that vice-presidents, including highly consequential ones like Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman, who stepped up in this way have played. Truman, for instance, was vice-president from just January to April 1945 before assuming the presidency after Franklin Roosevelt died.

Within weeks of assuming office, Truman made several highly consequential, controversial international decisions, including the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. He also attended in July and August that year the landmark Potsdam conference with the Soviet Union and the UK to decide how to administer the defeated Nazi Germany.

In this context, the electoral stakes have grown – in the nuclear age – of not selecting a deputy who is perceived to be incapable of assuming office effectively, upon the incumbent’s unanticipated incapacity or death.

Take the example of the 2008 election when Republican nominee John McCain, then 71, made the decision to select Sarah Palin, who was ultimately widely viewed at the time as too inexperienced to become a heartbeat away from the presidency.

This geopolitical factor has become important again in the 2020s as during much of the Cold War, by growing tensions between Russia and the West following the invasion of Ukraine. There are also concerns of a deepening alliance between China and Russia.

Unless Biden decides in the coming weeks not to run for a second term, it looks almost certain that Vice-President Kamala Harris will remain as his running mate. This despite the fact that Harris is widely perceived not to have performed strongly as vice-president since 2021.

Meanwhile, Trump chose in 2016 former Indiana governor Mike Pence who, even many partisan opponents would concede, could potentially have assumed the presidency if the situation had warranted this.

Taken together, Saturday’s assassination attempt has only increased the importance of Trump’s vice-presidential pick. The next office holder could really matter not only because of their significant powers, but also as the continuing dangers of high public office mean the No 2 may need to step up into the top job before 2029, at a time of major geopolitical tension.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics