Hard, soft, or no landing?

FOR most of last year, as central banks led by the US Federal Reserve hurriedly raised interest rates to curb the inflationary pressures that they had earlier overlooked, much of the concern focused on whether world economies – also led by the US – would experience a hard or soft landing.

In a hard landing, a recession is the outcome. The hoped-for scenario was a soft landing, in which rate hikes bring inflation down but growth continues.

Thus far, however, neither scenario is playing out.