Heat stress from climate change could worsen social inequality

HEAT has an insidious link to social inequality: as temperatures soar with climate change, it is often the poor who bear the brunt of the health and economic impact. Tackling heat-stress inequality will be critical for policymakers all over the world, as part of their national climate adaptation plans.

Scientific research shows that the world is headed towards more extreme heat. A national climate change study by Singapore, released last week, predicts that the city-state’s mean daily temperature could rise by as much as 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Scorching days are set to become a new normal. In the last four decades, Singapore on average had 21.4 “very hot” days annually, when daily maximum temperatures exceeded 35 deg C. By 2100, the country is projected to experience 41 such days annually at best, and 351 at worst.

Night-time will be more uncomfortable too. Singapore has on average had 76 annual “warm nights” – hotter than 26.3 deg C – over the last 40 years. By 2100, almost every night could be a warm one.

Heat will have a great economic toll. Over 40 countries, especially those in Asia, will experience declines in their economies because of heat stress, according to a 2016 paper by the United Nations. China’s gross domestic product could fall 1 per cent and Indonesia’s by 6 per cent by 2030. Extreme heat could also curb annual working hours across South-east Asia, the paper said.

The social impact may be less visible, but just as dire. Low-income households would face harsher living conditions, especially those in crowded and poorly ventilated areas. Hotter homes can indirectly reinforce poverty, by making it harder for children to study and posing numerous health risks.

Indoor cooling would be the simplest solution, but remains out of reach for the poor. In the Indian city of Kolkata, air-conditioning can cost a third of a worker’s monthly salary, which ranges from US$120 to US$144 a month, an analysis by The Washington Post found. In a cruel irony, those who do manage to afford air-conditioning end up blowing hot air into their neighbours’ homes.

Also at risk are blue-collar workers exposed to the elements. Extreme weather is more likely to restrict low-paid and low-skilled jobs – such as farming and heavy labour – while those who work corporate jobs are shielded from the outdoors. Blue-collar workers may also end up working longer hours without an increase in pay, as the weather limits their productivity. Once again, this could reinforce poverty.

Governments all over the world will need to ensure that the most vulnerable segments of society are given extra support to cope with the heat. This may mean redesigning buildings and infrastructure in poor communities to ensure that they do not trap heat, while increasing access to cooling equipment. Employers will also need to manage their workers’ heat exposure and invest in safety equipment.

Tackling heat-stress inequality will no doubt involve substantial costs, which will need to be budgeted for. Failing to do so could ultimately exact a bigger economic and social toll.