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THE BOTTOM LINE

How crowds become stupider

Prediction markets suffer when we all think the same way

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    • Almost 800 people guessed the weight of an ox at a country fair in 1906. Individually, the results were mediocre, but collectively, the median estimate was within 0.8% of the true weight.
    • Almost 800 people guessed the weight of an ox at a country fair in 1906. Individually, the results were mediocre, but collectively, the median estimate was within 0.8% of the true weight. PHOTO: PIXABAY

    Stuart Kirk

    Published Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · 03:36 PM

    FOR most of the World Cup game on Wednesday (Jul 1), the wisdom of crowds looked absent.

    Prediction sites gave England an overwhelming chance of beating the Democratic Republic of Congo. Yet, the men in white were still behind until 74 minutes in. Earlier in the week, Germany had been favourites before losing to Paraguay, and the Netherlands were unexpectedly defeated by Morocco.

    Away from the football (do not worry, this will not take long), the consensus was dead wrong about a weaker US dollar this year, too. Oil forecasters are also at sea. Meanwhile, despite US equity valuations at bonkers levels, investors are sanguine.

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