How reliable is the 60/40 portfolio in downturns? Adding private debt not a panacea

[SINGAPORE] A big argument in favour of an investment in private markets is that the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio (60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds) is no longer as reliable or robust as it traditionally was.

The steep portfolio loss in 2022 when stocks and bonds fell at the same time – and each asset class by double digits – has likely scarred most investors. It is no coincidence that since that year, strategists and bankers have redoubled efforts to persuade investors to invest in assets that are less correlated with public markets.

Institutions and private wealth advisers alike are pinning their hopes on private markets to drive not just overall portfolio returns but also dampen risk. BlackRock chairman Larry Fink in his 2025 letter wrote that the future standard portfolio may have the allocation of 50/30/20 – that is, 50 per cent stocks, 30 per cent bonds and 20 per cent in private assets such as infrastructure, real estate and private credit.