Inflation is fading, statistically and politically

LAST week was full of speeches. Most of those that attracted national attention in the United States were at the Democratic National Convention, culminating in Vice-President Kamala Harris’ big moment on Thursday (Aug 22). But there was another important speech on Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s talk at the Fed’s annual shindig in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Yes, Powell’s remarks were of particular interest to investors looking for clues about future monetary policy. But even though his speech was rigorously apolitical, it had important political implications. For what we’re seeing, I’d argue, is inflation fading away – not just in the data, but also as a political issue. And that, of course, is very good news for Democrats.

About Powell’s speech: He noted that the inflation rate has declined a lot since it peaked in 2022 and expressed confidence that it’s on track to reach the Fed’s target of 2 per cent – and why it’s getting there without the mass unemployment some economists had claimed would be necessary. Falling inflation all but guarantees that the Fed will cut interest rates at its Open Market Committee meeting next month, although the size of the anticipated cut is uncertain.