The Iran war presents a ‘guns and butter’ nightmare for investors
How long the conflict will last, and its energy impact, are unknown, but mounting global debt and inflation risks are all too real
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COMING after successive shocks from the Coronavirus pandemic, US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the retreat from globalisation sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Iran war looks uncomfortably like the stuff of nightmares.
Yet, the response in the oil market to serious supply disruption has been muted. Even after its initial rise, the oil price was standing midweek at only two-thirds of the 2022 peak level of US$128.
In the meantime, the wider inflation scare in the markets has fallen well short of panic. The question is, are investors wilfully complacent about the looming threat of stagflation?
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