A long way to go for India’s demographic dividend

INDIA’S so-called demographic dividend is becoming over-hyped. The country’s population overtook that of China sometime in the last few weeks. So it is being reported, somewhat breathlessly, that global brands and multinational corporations are beside themselves eyeing the country’s vast consumer market and huge pool of cheap labour.

It is being proclaimed that India’s growth would be so good that the country would be able to add an average of US$1 trillion to its economy every two years for the next 14 to 15 years. Foreign investment in technology is predicted to create well-paying jobs that would lift the living standard for every one of its 1.4 billion people. It is also being confidently said that India will be able to build up its manufacturing base to the level of the industrialised countries of East Asia.

While everyone hopes that India will do well, no one should overlook the obstacles that stand in its way. To begin with, the country is deeply divided by geography, language and ethnicity. Nothing is more stark than the difference between the northern Aryan Hindi-speaking belt and the country’s southern parts, sometimes referred to as its peninsular regions, where its ethnically different peoples speak Dravidian languages.