Major surprise as French far right flounder and look to 2027

MANY French and international publics drew a big sigh of relief on Sunday (Jul 7) as the far right, pre-poll favourites National Rally (RN) finished third in the second round of voting. However, the country could still be consumed by political dysfunction with President Emmanuel Macron’s economic reforms probably derailed, and the RN potentially growing significantly in popularity ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

In a major plot twist, defying all the opinion polls, the left-green New Popular Front (NFP) alliance won the most seats on Sunday, albeit less than 200 in the 577-seat National Assembly. Macron’s centrist alliance finished second.

As late as Friday, opinion surveys indicated that the RN would probably comfortably emerge as the single largest bloc on Sunday, with warnings that the party was at the “gates of power”. However, this proved spectacularly wrong, and the huge uncertainty this has generated over France’s future governance may spook financial markets further in coming days.