Markets look to big political year in 2023

AS THE 2022 election season winds down after November’s US midterm congressional ballots, markets are already looking ahead to 2023 which will see a wide range of eye-catching elections across the world.

Asia-Pacific, for instance, will host a number of much anticipated ballots, including in Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Markets will be watching these ballots closely, for different reasons. In Myanmar, the election will be the first since the 2021 coup d’etat displaced democratically elected members of the country’s then-ruling party, the National League for Democracy, including then-president Win Myint. Since then, the military has ruled the country of 55 million people under a state of emergency, which has been set by acting president Myint Swe for a maximum duration of two years. While significant political change could therefore be on the horizon in Myanmar, that scenario appears less likely in Cambodia with its almost 18 million population. There, longstanding leader Hun Sen is believed to want another term of office. Another leader who appears to want a new mandate is Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina as she seeks further electoral success for the Awami League in the country. While Hasina has won widespread plaudits internationally for re-settling hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, her government has been criticised for what is perceived as increasingly authoritarian rule. One other reason that the eyes of much of the world will be on Asia-Pacific politically next year is India’s hosting of the G20. The timing of that, ahead of India’s general elections in 2024, could help bolster Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s growing reputation in his populous nation as a leader of international stature.

Yet, it is not just Asia-Pacific where the political action will be in 2023. One other standout election will be in Turkey, where the polls could herald the end of the two-decade long “Erdogan era” that began in 2003 with Recep Erdogan’s election as prime minister before he assumed the presidency. Other key ballots in 2023 include the Nigerian general election, and the national ballots in Spain and Poland. In Nigeria, widely known as the “Giant of Africa”, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and cannot seek re-election. In Spain, the European Union’s fourth largest economy and a key G20 state, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is seeking a new term. However, he faces a strong challenge from a rejuvenated right-of-centre People’s Party keen to return to power. Meanwhile, the ballot in Poland will be shaped by the ongoing war in Ukraine. One of the other noteworthy features of the Polish election will be the attempted return to the parliament of former European Council president, Donald Tusk, who before his assumption of that top job in Brussels, served as Polish prime minister.