The non-proliferation problem

AVRIL Haines, the US director of national intelligence, recently warned that “Russia’s need for support in the context of Ukraine has forced it to grant some long-sought concessions to China, North Korea, and Iran with the potential to undermine, among other things, long-held non-proliferation norms”.

How much does this matter? Some theorists have long been sceptical about efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons, even arguing that proliferation can be a stabilising force. If the horrors associated with nuclear weapons are one reason why there have been no wars between great powers since 1945, they argue, perhaps the same effect can be replicated at the regional level. India and Pakistan developed a nuclear balance in the 1990s, and there have been no disastrous consequences so far.

But would prudence still prevail in a world of “nuclear-armed porcupines”?