Old and new lessons from the Ukraine war
The past two years have borne out several predictions concerning what does and does not work in 21st-century conflicts involving major powers
TWO years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine war. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up reasonably well.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he envisaged a quick seizure of the capital, Kyiv, and a change of government – much like what the Soviets did in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. But the war is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end.
If one sees the conflict as Ukraine’s “war of independence”, rather than focusing too much on borders, the Ukrainians are already victorious. Putin had denied that Ukraine was a separate nation, but his behaviour has only strengthened Ukrainian national identity.
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