‘Pitiful’ Sanae Takaichi on course to become Japan PM as she woos new coalition partner

[TOKYO] Days after the jubilant highs of becoming the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) first woman leader, Sanae Takaichi was self-deprecating.

The 64-year-old was poised for her coronation as prime minister on Oct 15. Yet, at a business event on Oct 14, she introduced herself with a touch of irony: “I am the pitiful Sanae Takaichi, of whom it is widely said: ‘She’s become the LDP president, but she may not become prime minister’.”

The Diet, as Japan’s Parliament is known, is now scheduled to convene on Oct 21. But, as a web of intense negotiations continues, the date for the prime minister vote remains undecided.

The customary open-and-shut vote has been complicated by the ruling LDP’s diminished position in both the Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet. While still the largest presence in both chambers, it lacks a majority and could be usurped in what is ultimately a numbers game.

Despite these challenges, analysts say Takaichi remains on course to take power.

A blemish to Takaichi’s reign came on Oct 10 when the dovish Komeito abruptly quit its 26-year coalition with the LDP, a relationship once described as “unshakeable”. She has since extended the coalition offer to the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), also commonly known as Nippon Ishin no Kai.

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The two parties are entering a third straight day of talks on Oct 17. The JIP, recognising a golden opportunity for political leverage, has presented the LDP with a list of 12 demands.

Among other things, it wants a two-year abolition of consumption tax on food, and the designation of Osaka as a “sub-capital” to ensure government functions are not disrupted if a major earthquake strikes Tokyo.

The conservative JIP was founded in 2015 in Osaka, where it is so dominant that it swept all 19 single-seat constituencies in the 2024 Lower House election.

While the party has failed to make significant inroads nationwide, it has championed populist policies such as free education and an upper limit on the share of foreign residents in Japan.

The most significant hurdle, however, lies in how Takaichi will respond to the JIP’s demand for a complete ban on corporate and group donations. The opacity surrounding these monies has allowed the LDP to exert undue policy influence, leading to political slush funds and kickbacks.

Komeito cited the LDP’s reluctance to decisively ban such donations as proof of its impertinence during their break-up. Whether the JIP is more than a convenient rebound will depend on the extent to which the LDP will accept its demands and resolve fundamental issues.

Both parties say they are already “broadly on the same page” on many issues, including the promotion of nuclear energy and the maintenance of patrilineal lineage of the imperial family.

The question, however, is how far Takaichi will compromise on the JIP’s other demands, with the party describing as “absolute requirements” the realisation of Osaka as the “sub-capital” and social security reforms to lower insurance premiums for the working-age population.

“It seems highly likely that Takaichi will be PM, with Ishin either formally joining the coalition or becoming a confidence-and-supply partner to the LDP,” political science professor Ko Maeda of the University of North Texas told The Straits Times, using a political term to describe a limited cooperation agreement.

“Regardless, a stable government will not be formed,” he added, given that the two parties will still be short of a majority in both Diet chambers and will have to negotiate with other parties on policy matters. 

Sophia University political science associate professor Koichi Nakano further observed that Japan is “moving into a multi-party framework, with the LDP still dominant and in power”.

This spells bad news for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), the main opposition led by Yoshihiko Noda, 68, who served as prime minister from 2011 to 2012. Nakano noted the party’s lack of direction, telling ST: “Nobody thinks the CDP is ready to be in power.”

Consequently, Noda is not considered even a long shot in the current leadership race. Despite the CDP’s status, he has proposed rallying behind the 56-year-old leader of the much smaller populist Democratic Party For The People (DPFP), Yuichiro Tamaki, for the PM vote.

With 35 seats, the JIP has emerged as a kingmaker in the race. 

The LDP holds 196 seats in the 465-member Lower House, and an alliance with the JIP will create a political force of 231 members – just two short of a majority.

The CDP, with 148 seats, hopes to unite with the JIP, DPFP (27 seats) and potentially Komeito (24 seats) for a combined total of 234 seats.

“The opposition has managed to seize power from the LDP only twice, in 1993 and 2009. Rather than negotiating with the LDP on an ad hoc policy basis, I told (party leaders) that it would be more effective to take power to get things moving,” Noda said on Oct 15.

The CDP is aligned with the other parties on a ban on corporate political donations. But it stands poles apart from the JIP and DPFP on issues such as revising the war-renouncing Constitution to recognise the Self-Defence Forces and the active use of nuclear energy.

This presents one major hurdle, experts said, recalling the fragility of the 1993 coalition government that comprised eight parties and ousted the LDP from power for the first time since its founding in 1955. However, policy squabbles led to the government’s disintegration a year later and the return of an LDP leader as PM.

Additionally, the odds of this opposition alliance have been slashed after ugly exchanges between the DPFP and JIP, when the latter entered formal coalition talks with the LDP. 

Tamaki described the JIP as “deceptive two-faced snakes”, while JIP co-leader Hirofumi Yoshimura retorted that the DPFP should “focus on how best to realise their own party’s policies”.

The CDP, meanwhile, said it was deferring talks until the JIP’s position becomes clear, noting that there cannot be trust if the party negotiates on both sides.

During the Diet vote for PM, a run-off round will be held between the top two finishers if no candidate secures an outright majority. Given the LDP’s sheer numbers, Takaichi is assured of victory even if the opposition parties vote for their respective leaders.

Still, the political mess has led even some LDP lawmakers to suggest that Mr Shigeru Ishiba remain in office and not step down, should the opposition manage to combine forces to block Takaichi’s path to victory.

This gridlock threatens to derail diplomatic preparations, as the new leader is expected to travel to Kuala Lumpur for Asean-related summits starting on Oct 26. He or she will then host US President Donald Trump for a summit in Tokyo on Oct 28, before visiting Gyeongju in South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit from Oct 31.

Takaichi, having already beaten the odds to be elected LDP leader, is determined to smash Japan’s glass ceiling. “I will not give up in times like these. I will do everything I can until the final moment when the prime minister is chosen,” she said. THE STRAITS TIMES