Possible Biden-Trump rematch in a vastly different political and economic landscape

THE worst-kept secret (if it can even be called a secret, that is) in Washington was finally out on Tuesday (Apr 25) when US President Joe Biden formally announced that he will seek re-election next year.

The man who will turn 81 in a few months’ time declared that he wants to “finish this job” of rebuilding the economy and uniting the nation. Biden, who’s not expected to face a major challenge for the Democratic Party nomination, is headed towards a likely rematch at the polls with 76-year-old Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, whom he defeated at the last election in 2020.

Thus will begin yet another US election campaign season. The battle for the White House takes place amid a political, economic and social landscape that is vastly different from what it was just three short years ago. The world’s largest economy is still dealing with the effects of a 40-year high in inflation that continues to hurt millions of Americans hard in the pocket. The Covid-19 pandemic began in early 2020 and was a dominant theme of the last election, with the death toll in the US at over 1.1 million and counting.

Biden will have to navigate all sorts of obstacles in the next 19 months as he looks to extend his stay in the White House. As the incumbent, he will have to juggle his duties as the current commander-in-chief while he heads out on the campaign trail. His re-election bid also doubles as a performance appraisal of sorts of his first term, with voters scrutinising his policies and what he has delivered so far. These include a fairly successful mass vaccination programme; signing legislation on issues such as climate change, infrastructure, gun violence and same-sex marriage; bringing unemployment to the lowest level in over 50 years; and appointing the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court.

Naturally, as he is already the oldest president in America’s history, Biden will also have to contend with pushbacks – even from many of his fellow Democrats – that he is too old or unfit to remain at the helm.

The results of a poll by NBC News last weekend revealed that 70 per cent of Americans, including 51 per cent of Democrats, don’t want Biden to contest again. A separate survey by Reuters/Ipsos released last week had Biden’s approval ratings at just 39 per cent. It’s worth noting, however, that the NBC poll also found that 60 per cent of Americans, including about a third of Republicans, would prefer if Trump did not run for president again.

Yet the apparent lack of depth in the Democratic Party – and, on the part of the Republicans, Trump’s seeming hold on the party, despite his legal troubles – means a possible rematch of the two men come November 2024.

From now until Election Day, Biden knows he has to work doubly hard to win over the hearts and minds of the voters, and convince them that the America of today is in a better position than when he was sworn in. Whether or not he ends up in another showdown with an unpredictable Trump, what’s clear is that Biden will look to present a fairly respectable report card to voters as he seeks to prove he is more than capable – and deserving – of another four years in the White House.