A private equity rebound remains elusive

ASIA-PACIFIC private equity (PE) markets plunged again in 2023 as investors fretted about slowing economic growth, high interest rates, and volatile public stock markets. Deal value fell to US$149 billion, extending the dealmaking slump that began in 2022. Exits fell sharply, and fundraising declined to its lowest level in 10 years.

Investors remained especially cautious of buying companies in Greater China, and a murky economic outlook affected the entire region.

In South-east Asia, deal value fell 39 per cent compared with the previous five-year average and exit value declined 58 per cent from 2022. In the first quarter of 2024, South-east Asia deal value fell to US$1.4 billion, down 46 per cent from the previous quarter

Japan was the only market to buck the trend, with a rise in deal activity. Investors found comfort in Japan’s deep pool of target companies with performance-improvement potential, its stable regulatory environment, and persistently low interest rates.

Technology was again the largest industry sector in terms of deals and exits across the region. But investors continued shifting away from riskier, more speculative assets to defensive assets, including manufacturing companies and firms linked to the energy transition.

The energy and natural resources sector was the only investment area in which deal value and volume grew in 2023. Deal value rose to US$22 billion, up 7 per cent versus the prior five-year average.

In South-east Asia, several large deals boosted healthcare’s proportion of overall deal value.

For the first time since 2017, buyouts represented the largest proportion of Asia-Pacific deal value, pushing growth deals to second place. Buyouts accounted for 48 per cent of deal value, up from the prior five-year average of 32 per cent. Growth deals represented 41 per cent of deal value. However, in South-east Asia, growth capital continued to account for 70 per cent of deal value in 2023.

Asia-Pacific median deal multiples – the ratio of enterprise value to Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) – fell sharply in 2023 to 10.1 from 14.8 a year earlier, according to data reported at year end. In South-east Asia, the median multiple dipped slightly to 11.6.

Facing the sixth year in a row of low or negative net cash flow, limited partners (LPs) put new allocations largely on hold. Investors focused on funds with demonstrated success, exposure to preferred markets, and differentiated strategies.

By year end, signs of market improvement began to appear, but the timing of a recovery remains unclear. Inflation rates began falling in most markets after spiking in 2022. Interest rates in most Asia-Pacific markets are forecast to decline in late 2024 or 2025. And some currencies that depreciated against the US dollar in 2022 and 2023 started to recover.

Returns were a bright spot in 2023, reconfirming that private equity is still an attractive investment class, far outperforming public markets over five-, 10-, and 20-year horizons. And the volume of dry powder remains at a record level.

New sectors hold promise once private equity rebounds. Disruptive innovations such as generative artificial intelligence (AI) are creating fresh opportunities. Bain research shows that most general partners (GPs) are using generative AI to mitigate risk, enhance operations, and improve the performance of portfolio companies. GPs are already scouting for generative AI assets coming to market and are assessing how generative AI can be useful during diligence on potential targets.

LPs are still optimistic about some countries within the region. Japan ranked among the top three developed markets for PE investment opportunities over the next 12 months, according to Preqin’s 2023 investor survey. India and South-east Asia ranked best in terms of emerging market investment opportunities.

The two-year drop in dealmaking has put GPs under growing pressure to exit ageing investments and return cash to LPs. The most common reason that efforts to sell portfolio companies have failed is the buyer and seller not agreeing on the valuation. To improve their odds, leaders are shifting their attention to portfolio management and exit planning. Bain research shows that developing a pre-sales strategy and a compelling equity story can help funds attract buyers and exit successfully despite difficult market conditions.

In a turbulent year for private equity, many leading funds also started to explore alternative asset classes, including infrastructure and private credit, as a key source of growth. Both of these asset classes have room to grow in the Asia-Pacific region. In our experience, diversification is challenging. Those who get it right build needed capabilities and invest close to their core business.

The writers are from Bain & Company. Usman Akhtar is a senior partner and head of Bain’s South-east Asia private equity practice based in Singapore, Sebastien Lamy is a senior partner and head of Asia-Pacific private equity practice based in Singapore, and Lachlan McMurdo is a partner based in Melbourne.