Rail: Enabling S-E Asia’s breakneck growth sustainably

SOUTH-EAST Asia stands to become one of the largest economic blocs by 2040, behind only the United States, China and India. This ascent, powered by a young and rapidly growing population, brings transformative growth opportunities but also significant challenges, particularly in sustainable infrastructure. To harness its economic potential responsibly, South-east Asia must focus on creating resilient and efficient urban transport systems, with rail emerging as a cornerstone of this strategy.

The demographic dynamism of South-east Asia is striking. With a median age of under 30, a population expected to increase by 24 per cent from 2021 to nearly 786 million by 2040, the region’s cities will experience unprecedented growth. By 2030, nearly 56 per cent of the population is expected to live in cities, up from 47 per cent in 2015. This urban migration promises to fuel economic expansion but also intensifies issues of road congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). According to estimates, traffic congestion alone already costs countries in the region between 2 and 5 per cent of their gross domestic product annually.

If unchecked, this growth trajectory will stain both infrastructure and climate targets. A surge in private motorised transport not only threatens to exacerbate gridlock but risks undermining public health, increasing GHG emissions and deepening socio-economic disparities. Without substantial shifts in transport policy and infrastructure investment, achieving the Paris Agreement’s objectives to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius may prove elusive, with profound implications for the region’s long-term resilience and exacerbating the dire risks around environmental catastrophe.

Most efficient and sustainable transport mode

Of all the public transport systems, rail remains the most efficient and least pollutive at moving people and goods at scale. Rail networks carry 8 per cent of the world’s motorised passenger movements and 7 per cent of freight transport, but consume only 2 per cent of the energy used by the transport sector. It is the only transport mode that is already widely electrified and is the lowest-emission mass transport mode even without renewable energy.

Trains require 12 times less energy and emit five to 10 times less GHGs than private vehicles and airplanes on a per passenger km basis. The French high-speed rail system, the TGV, emits average carbon emissions of 2 grams CO2 per passenger km – more than 50 times fewer than a car and 80 times fewer than a plane.

There is much scope to further reduce emissions from rail transport. Diesel trains still account for a quarter of operations globally, and we can replace them with emission-free rolling stock solutions that are available now. Using the more affordable grey hydrogen produced with the use of fossil fuels will already cut CO2 emissions by about 40 per cent compared to diesel trains.

If powered by renewable energy, rail transport is close to zero emission on a well-to-wheels basis – that is, considering all stages of the life cycle, from the production, transportation to transformation and distribution of the fuel burnt by the vehicle. With green hydrogen, each train will save around 700 tonnes of emissions each year.

And operators of railway systems offer a suite of low-emission rail technologies including hydrogen trains, battery trains and electrification. Green traction solutions also enable rail operators to convert diesel trains to low-emission traction.

Rail fosters social and economic development

Rail transport’s benefits extend well beyond environmental impact. Investment in rail bolsters social cohesion and economic resilience, facilitating the movement of people and goods – in turn enhancing business and personal relationships.

Rail networks connect cities to export hubs and enable international corridors that stimulate cross-border trade and cultural exchanges, making them vital to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially SDG 11, which envisions inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable urban spaces.

Historically, rail has been pivotal in driving industrial and economic growth, lowering transportation costs and integrating markets. For South-east Asia, an extensive rail network could unlock similar opportunities, connecting emerging economic centres to global markets while minimising environmental costs.

Accelerating the modal shift to rail: Policy and financing imperatives

The social, economic and environmental benefits of rail are unquestionable, but realising its potential requires a dramatic shift in transport modes. The International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario projects that the modal share of rail must grow by over 40 per cent by 2030 to achieve net zero in the transport sector by 2050.

Achieving this shift necessitates not only substantial investments from both public and private sectors, but also effective policy frameworks that incentivise green mobility, discourage road congestion and curb emissions. Effectively implementing such green policies, as well as the requisite technologies, is projected to cut annual emissions globally by 39 per cent by 2050.

However, financing remains a big challenge. Despite promising prospects, high speed rail projects, for instance, face challenges in securing funds for land acquisition and infrastructure. To bridge this gap, governments must pursue innovative financing strategies, such as public-private partnerships and multilateral development banks. The recently concluded Transport and Climate Change Week, held ahead of COP29 in November, underscored the need for urgent actions for advancing the role of transport sector in climate action and the need for greater financing in the Global South.

The road ahead: Rail is the only option

With extreme weather events and hotter daily temperatures becoming more commonplace, the urgency with which we need to combat climate change is driven home almost daily. South-east Asia, with its rapid urbanisation and rising energy demands, stands at a crossroads. Rail, as the most efficient and least pollutive mass transit solution, is uniquely positioned to address the dual challenges of economic growth and environmental sustainability.

For the region to thrive without succumbing to the pitfalls of unchecked urban expansion, “business as usual” is not an option. We need to move to more sustainable forms of transport, and rail networks must become the backbone of public transport. Investing in rail now will empower South-east Asia to pursue sustainable development, making its cities liveable and its economy resilient for generations to come.

The writer is president, Asia Pacific, at Alstom