Rail: Enabling S-E Asia’s breakneck growth sustainably

SOUTH-EAST Asia stands to become one of the largest economic blocs by 2040, behind only the United States, China and India. This ascent, powered by a young and rapidly growing population, brings transformative growth opportunities but also significant challenges, particularly in sustainable infrastructure. To harness its economic potential responsibly, South-east Asia must focus on creating resilient and efficient urban transport systems, with rail emerging as a cornerstone of this strategy.

The demographic dynamism of South-east Asia is striking. With a median age of under 30, a population expected to increase by 24 per cent from 2021 to nearly 786 million by 2040, the region’s cities will experience unprecedented growth. By 2030, nearly 56 per cent of the population is expected to live in cities, up from 47 per cent in 2015. This urban migration promises to fuel economic expansion but also intensifies issues of road congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). According to estimates, traffic congestion alone already costs countries in the region between 2 and 5 per cent of their gross domestic product annually.

If unchecked, this growth trajectory will stain both infrastructure and climate targets. A surge in private motorised transport not only threatens to exacerbate gridlock but risks undermining public health, increasing GHG emissions and deepening socio-economic disparities. Without substantial shifts in transport policy and infrastructure investment, achieving the Paris Agreement’s objectives to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius may prove elusive, with profound implications for the region’s long-term resilience and exacerbating the dire risks around environmental catastrophe.