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The return of fiscal dominance

As public debt rises and trade fades as a growth engine, central banks risk losing the independence that underpins global financial stability

    • With gross public debt around 240% of GDP, Japan has long tested the outer limits of fiscal sustainability without crisis.
    • With gross public debt around 240% of GDP, Japan has long tested the outer limits of fiscal sustainability without crisis. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
    Published Tue, Jan 27, 2026 · 06:13 PM

    THE global economy is entering a more dangerous phase of adjustment.

    As the gains from trade integration fade and geopolitical fragmentation deepens, governments are increasingly relying on domestic fiscal policy to sustain growth, manage structural transitions and respond to shocks.

    Fiscal activism is no longer cyclical. It is structural.

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