Rising Federal Reserve chatter is not making life in markets easy

HOW many people make for a good debate? The closer we get to the expected timing of a first US interest rate cut, the hotter a topic it becomes – and the more individuals weigh in. Ten of the Federal Reserve’s 12 rate-setting voters have managed at least 20 public appearances between them in the past fortnight.

That has given market watchers plenty of commentary to parse, even if market direction suggests no more certainty about the Fed’s policy path than before the volume of chatter began to rise. If anything, there is greater sensitivity. On Thursday (April 4), the S&P 500 reversed a boosterish 0.8 per cent morning gain to close 1.2 per cent lower – its worst day in eight weeks. The tumble was not due solely to interest rate jitters, but it did not help that oil prices hit a five-month high, breaking through US$90, at about the same time Minneapolis Fed head Neel Kashkari said he would question the need for any rate cuts at all if inflation didn’t ease further.

Kashkari is not even a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year – regional Fed presidents rotate those positions – but his comments were close to those of some colleagues with a greater say in the deliberations.