Scenario planning is getting a stress test

HOW can companies plan ahead when it feels like tomorrow may look nothing like today? It’s the question hanging over boardrooms as business leaders contend with a barrage of challenges – from AI disruption and geopolitical tensions to tariffs and financial market fluctuations driven by how trigger-happy the US president is on social media. The feeling of heightened uncertainty is palpable.

US airline companies are withdrawing full-year financial guidance while carmaker Ford suspended making forecasts on its outlook, citing “substantial industry risks”. From Unilever to HSBC, corporations are having to make explicit warnings over unpredictable policy and uncertainty over interest rates and consumer confidence.

In this climate, it’s no wonder the tools used to stress test corporate strategies are under scrutiny. For decades, scenario planning has helped organisations map out a range of futures based on variables including economic shifts, technological leaps and regulatory changes.