The secret to Ukraine’s remarkably resilient labour market

WHAT happens to an economy when a quarter of the labour force has to leave – either to become soldiers or refugees? If you had asked me that five years ago, I would have said, first, that it would be an economic disaster and, second, that nobody would be collecting labour market statistics in a scenario like that anyway.

But the war in Ukraine – now into its fifth year since Russia’s full-scale invasion – has proved me wrong on both fronts. Although the government’s labour market survey was suspended after the invasion in 2022, the country’s modern digital infrastructure means that economists can piece together an idea of what has happened via online job platforms and administrative sources.

Tito Boeri, economics professor at Bocconi University in Milan, told me the quality of data in Ukraine was “unprecedented” for a wartime economy. As a result, “this is the first time we can observe the way a labour market operates during a war”. What does that data show? A remarkable level of resilience given the circumstances.