Shrinking populations mean a poorer, more fractious world

IF CURRENT forecasts are accurate, 2064 will be the first year in centuries when fewer babies are born than people die. Birth rates in India will fall to below the level seen in America last year. Even with immigration and successful pro-natal policies, America’s population will only have a little bit of growth left. By 2100 there will be many fewer migrants left to attract. The world’s fertility rate will hit 1.7. Just two Pacific islands and four African countries will manage to reproduce above replacement level.

Sooner or later, therefore, every big economy will collide with a demographic wall. The bill from pensions and hospitals will pile on fiscal pressure. Sapped of workers and ideas, economic growth could collapse while public debt balloons. Just how catastrophic the situation becomes depends on whether policymakers maintain budgetary discipline, withstand pressure from angry older voters and, crucially, are willing to inflict pain on populations now in order to save future generations from more later on.

America and Europe at least have longer to prepare than East Asia, which is already starting to feel the strain. South Korea has been ageing for a while, but only in the past four years has its population started to decline. It will now continue to fall for decades, as larger generations die off. By 2036 twice as many Koreans will be over the age of 65 as under 18. China will reach a similar point by 2040. America will take until 2100 to catch up.