Singapore’s energy decarbonisation must be pragmatic

IN THE last year, Singapore has made great strides in committing to a carbon-free future. Led by the ambitious Singapore Green Plan 2030 and the Energy 2050 Plan, decarbonisation intiatives have kicked off in sectors important to Singapore’s story and economic journey: in the maritime sector with MPA’s 2050 decarbonisation blueprint and with the public sector targeting net zero by 2045.

As Singapore moves to realise these bold goals, however, it needs to retain a strong strain of old-fashioned prudence. Pragmatism – balancing our ideals for a sustainable future with the realities of our uncertain present – must be the fulcrum upon which we balance the lever of energy decarbonisation.

Decarbonisation remains a priority

In 2022, the government floated a wide array of game-changing sustainability measures, from progressive carbon taxes and coastal flood protection to electric vehicle rebates and green finance. This year, the Budget prioritised support for Singaporeans and businesses in the face of the rising cost of living and major economic headwinds.

Without changing Singapore’s commitment to decarbonisation, Budget 2023 throws light on the larger world which the country must exist in and interact with: clouded by conflict, economic instability, and geopolitical competition.

There is certainly still great potential in pursuing decarbonisation, but the approach must be cautious and not compulsive. It must be driven by national and public interest.

Energy decarbonisation is not immune to hiccups and speed bumps. The difficulties faced by the proposed solar power cable from Australia to Singapore are proof of this.

In reality, there is a basic gap in long-term decarbonisation: nations that have abundant renewable energy capture potential are often different from and far away from nations that have great renewable energy demand, such as Singapore.

Getting conventional energy such as oil and gas from point A to B is already a journey fraught with risk and market swings; moving renewable energy between countries is even more so.

The intermittent and seasonal nature of renewable power generation, combined with limited international transmission avenues, makes it even harder to close this gap between renewable energy suppliers and consumers.

The differences in power grids between neighbouring nations, let alone far-flung ones, complicates this further. A pragmatic approach will need to mitigate these if we hope to achieve energy decarbonisation targets in Singapore and beyond.

Energy transition strategies are key

Pragmatism can sometimes be a big word for sceptics of energy decarbonisation to hide behind. What does it mean to embrace pragmatism on the journey to net zero?

Imagine a relay race, where runners cannot dash ahead without receiving a baton from the previous runner. Successful energy decarbonisation is the last runner in the relay race currently being run against climate change. It has the all-important task of crossing the finishing line. But it cannot move an inch until it has been handed the baton.

This analogy captures two aspects of pragmatic energy decarbonisation: first, the importance of transitions; second, how critical it is to keep our runner in the race until the baton has been passed.

The transition from climate-damaging fossil fuels and energy, such as oil and coal, to climate-friendly ones, such as renewables and nuclear, is not one step or ten but a continuous spectrum.

This spectrum moves from relatively simple, scale-economised, time-tested technology and processes to separate energy from nature – such as coal mining and oil drilling – to technically complex and risky new methods that seek to draw from nature and not scar it, such as photovoltaic panels, green hydrogen.

As we move along this spectrum towards technology-intensive energy, the energy hubs of today may not be the hubs of tomorrow.

In the past, energy exporters were those that happened to have deposits in their territory. As the future of energy is tied to technological advancement – more efficient solar panels and batteries, new generations of nuclear power and hydrogen technology – circumstantial natural deposits become less important than a country’s technological and engineering prowess.

Greater, fiercer competition can be expected as upstart hubs jostle to establish themselves and established hubs preserve their advantage. Singapore will need to enter the fray and invest in transitional fuels as well: we cannot turn our back on them and wait to adopt the final winner.

Those hubs that establish dominance in one transitional technology can then benefit from existing expertise and infrastructure to advance to the next technological milestone.

Existing frictions in global geopolitics and trade relations may possibly be compounded further, and energy security may not be as straightforward.

Energy from oil, for example, is relatively light on closely guarded intellectual property, since the value is in the commodity and not the extractive technology. The reversal of this dynamic – with cheap power from sophisticated, capital-intensive, patented renewable capture technology – may lead to new and unforeseen threats to Singapore’s energy security.

Staying in the race

This brings us to the second aspect of pragmatic energy decarbonisation: keeping our baton-holding runner in the race until they’ve done their job.

That Singapore is now developed enough to enjoy a range of low-carbon energy options – from solar to hydrogen – is due in large part to the consistent energy security and high-quality industrialisation enabled by our early dependence on hydrocarbons.

Even with twists and turns in global energy markets, it is paramount that we keep this current runner going strong until it has done its part. We must ensure that it supports our economy and society until we can confidently transition to the next runner. It must stay in the race to finally reach the last runner and trigger the last dash to total energy decarbonisation.

With its accumulated competence as a world leader in refining, offshore platforms, and shipping, Singapore is in a prime spot to advise and nudge the oil and gas industry into a greener future.

Squandering that spot by flatly cutting these industries off – however well-intentioned that may be – puts not only Singapore, but indeed the industry and the world, on the backfoot when it comes to accelerating oil and gas decarbonisation.

It prevents the baton from being passed on effectively and weakens net-zero efforts, as we have seen with the return of several countries to coal-fired power generation.

In the delicate interplay between national interest and international sustainability, the energy security needs of our growing city state must take precedence. In an unstable world rife with competition over limited, material energy resources, pragmatism will light our way to a decarbonised, net zero future.

The writer is Surbana Jurong’s managing director, energy and industrial.