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The tariff war that wasn’t: What economists missed about Trump’s trade gambit

Reality proves more complex with non-traditional factors at play, including structural shifts

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    • Although US-China bilateral trade dropped sharply by 33%, Chinese EV exports to Asean surged 75%.
    • Although US-China bilateral trade dropped sharply by 33%, Chinese EV exports to Asean surged 75%. PHOTO: THE NEW YORK TIMES

    Khor Hoe Ee

    Published Tue, Jan 13, 2026 · 07:00 AM

    WHEN US President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on Apr 2, 2025, economics professionals around the world braced for catastrophe.

    The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) forecast that Asean economies would suffer gross domestic product losses of 0.5 to one percentage point, with export-dependent nations such as Vietnam and Cambodia facing severe disruptions.

    Major financial institutions predicted a US recession, and stock markets crashed nearly 20 per cent in days after Apr 2.

    GeopoliticsEconomicsGlobal economyTrump tariffsAseanNew Global Order

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