Trump’s indictment: Legal requirements versus political concerns

ON TUESDAY (Apr 4), former US President Donald Trump is expected to turn himself in to New York prosecutors as he readies himself for criminal charges in a development that could shake up American politics in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.

In what would be the first criminal indictment of a former president in American history, Trump will be charged by Alvin Bragg, Manhattan’s district attorney, of paying a former porn actress, Stormy Daniels, in order to buy her silence.

On one level, the indictment of a former president sends a message that no American is above the law and that compromising the rule of law fatally wounds the democratic foundations of the United States. And for that matter, former political leaders in other countries, including France, South Korea and Israel, have faced similar criminal charges, with some of them having to spend time in jail.

Moreover, several more criminal allegations against Trump are still being considered by the federal government and by other states, that could be put to a grand jury. These relate to the former president’s role in the Jan 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol to overturn the results of the 2020 president election, as well as his alleged attempt to suborn Georgia state officials to “find” missing votes and reverse the electoral college count. From that perspective, the criminal charges Trump is facing in New York fall short of the allegations against him being investigated elsewhere, and it’s not clear whether the payment of hush money to an adult-film actor would result in a conviction and prison sentence.

If anything, the concern is that the 76-year-old former real estate developer and reality television star would probably exploit the legal drama taking place in Manhattan to fire up his political base and promote the narrative that will likely drive his 2024 president campaign – that, as he told his supporters recently, “I am your warrior, I am your justice”.

True to form, Trump and his supporters have already bashed the indictment against him as part of a political “witch hunt” conducted by the “deep state”, calling Braggs, an African-American, “an animal” who is conducting an “un-American” campaign aimed at advancing the political agenda of the Democrats.

Indeed, even Democrats who loathe Trump have expressed concern that the Manhattan prosecutor may be playing into Trump’s hands by focusing the media’s attention on the former president and providing him with a forum to market himself as a political martyr, and secure his nomination as the 2024 Republican presidential candidate. In a way, the indictment against Trump (who remains the most popular political figure among Republican voters) has already produced a wave of sympathy for the former president, not only among members of his political base but also from his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Moreover, it’s not inconceivable that Trump’s legal troubles could ignite political unrest and even violence in a country that remains polarised and where half of the American public perceives the indictment against the former president not as a victory for the rule of law, but as political persecution. The US could be in for a rocky run-up to its next election, at a time when the country is facing off major geopolitical and economic challenges from external adversaries and market developments.