Trump’s victory represents a historic protest vote, no more and no less

HAVING turned the vote his way in just about every corner of the 50 states, Donald Trump’s victory in the race for the White House appears to reflect a sweeping turn to the populist right, across all demographics. But the US is just another country where the protest vote – not necessarily on the right or left – has become the new majority.

Widespread talk of a “global” anti-incumbency wave misses one important distinction. This year, in the 50 most populous democracies, incumbents have won 14 per cent of the elections in developed countries, compared with 73 per cent in developing countries. Approval ratings show the same stark gap; leaders are deeply unpopular on average in the developed world, but are still popular in the developing world. The wave is not global, it is a revolt against long-term rot in post-capitalist economies, of which America is the leading example. 

For the first time since the late 1800s, the party in power has lost three US presidential elections in a row (including Trump in 2020). With anti-incumbent hostility this strong, it’s too early for triumphal conclusions about the strength of his mandate, or the durability of his majority.