Unseen risks to 2023’s recovery

WHAT could sink stocks? The question plagues many minds. To find answers, though, look where others aren’t – not at widely touted fears such as Ukraine, weak global trade, interest rate hikes and hot inflation. Or squabbles over America’s debt ceiling. They are too widely watched and, hence, heavily factored into stock prices.

Instead, seek stealthy, torpedo-like negatives. These possible shocks don’t look probable enough to upend my optimism now. But stealthy risks lurk in 2023. And several are worth mentioning and watching.

One is a credit freeze. Today, global loan growth is strong – a key factor stubbornly thwarting recession predictions. January lending growth in the United States was 11.6 per cent year over year (yoy) – nearly three times the 4.3 per cent growth of the year-ago period. In Singapore and globally, it is slower; but still nicely positive.