As US boycotts G20, China dominates the script
With Washington absent and tariffs imposed, Beijing seized the African summit to champion the Global South – and expand its influence
THE 2025 G20 will go down in history as the first held on African soil. However, it may be remembered as the moment China’s influence reached its highest point yet in the global forum, following the unprecedented US boycott and recent Trump tariffs.
Beijing has long “love-bombed” the African continent, expanding its footprint through projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative. China also recently removed tariffs on imports from all African nations except Eswatini, which maintains formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
By contrast, the Trump team not only skipped the summit, but also imposed a 30 per cent reciprocal tariff on South African exports. Moreover, the US State Department has placed South Africa on a human trafficking watch list, which means it must clamp down on the activity or face possible US sanctions.
Furthermore, pending US legislation – such as the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act, and the Addressing Hostile and Antisemitic Conduct by the Republic of South Africa Act – calls for action against South African leaders and the suspension of direct assistance.
Crucially, this would freeze aid unless Pretoria addresses corruption, ceases legal actions targeting Israel, and ensures its ties with China, Russia and Iran do not undermine US interests.
Unsurprisingly, then, China exerted outsized influence during the 2025 G20 process. A similar dynamic played out at the United Nations climate change conference, or COP30, in Brazil earlier this month.
At COP30, China secured the coveted entrance location pavilion, alongside host Brazil, a sharp upgrade from previous peripheral spots. With Chinese industrial giants such as battery maker CATL and electric vehicle maker BYD holding solo events, Francesco La Camera, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency, asserted that “the competitive edge China has built in renewable energy and electric vehicles is expanding its diplomatic influence”.
Western officials have issued similar warnings about US President Donald Trump’s boycott of the G20. For instance, former senior deputy press secretary for the Biden Administration, Andrew Bates, highlighted how “this show of (US) weakness hurts our national security and economy while benefiting China”.
Dr Jing Gu of the Institute of Development Studies made a similar observation of Washington’s absence: “It reinforces the perception that the US is stepping back from multilateralism and the shared management of global problems. In that context, China can present itself as a more predictable, stable actor and emphasise continuity, support for open trade and engagement with the Global South.”
G20 leadership statement
The leadership statement agreed at the G20 summit reflects some of China’s priorities, such as debt and climate change, in the face of Trump’s “America First” agenda.
Of course, Beijing did not deliver this agenda alone, cultivating significant support from the Global South, including India, which also wielded a stronger voice at this year’s G20.
In Johannesburg, Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned of “unilateralism and protectionism rampant, and various trade restrictions and confrontations increasing”. His policy prescription was to adhere to “the principle of working together in solidarity, firmly upholding free trade, and building an open world economy”.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has long called for debt relief for emerging markets. This was repeated by Li at the summit, seeking to accelerate the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments, which has been subject to much delay.
Li also called for acceleration of reform of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization. Much of the G20 welcomed this, agreeing to boost finance for a just energy transition in developing economies.
Moreover, Li unveiled details of a Chinese global mining initiative with some 20 friendly nations, including Cambodia and Myanmar, amid growing pressure on Beijing on this issue following its recent curbs on rare earths.
This initiative informed a blueprint for a new G20 Critical Minerals Framework launched in Johannesburg – to help producer countries derive more benefit.
G20 divisions will persist
While China’s influence proved particularly strong in Johannesburg, this agenda-setting power will be curtailed next year when the US takes the chair. The one constant, however, since the Covid-19 pandemic, is the G20’s diminishing effectiveness in the face of growing global geopolitical divisions.
Tensions between China and the West remain elevated, and recent summits have seen diplomatic friction over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. In recent years, G20 ministers have regularly clashed, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walking out of meetings. Moreover, the customary “G20 family” group pictures have become rarer.
In this context, 2025 has been the most unpredictable G20 year ever. However, the process did not collapse into rancour, with South Africa choosing to hold a vote on the final declaration at the start of the two-day summit, rather than the end to avoid potential disagreement.
Yet, while the “G20 show” barely stayed on track in 2025, the future of the multilateral forum remains at risk. Further diplomatic fireworks may lie ahead in 2026 under the US chairing, including the possibility that Trump could try to exclude South Africa and other nations from key meetings.
The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
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