US-China rivalry and the Kindleberger Trap: Why inaction – not escalation – is the biggest risk

THE intensifying rivalry between the US and China is often framed through the lens of conflict – most notably the so-called Thucydides Trap, which warns of war between a rising and an established power.

Yet, an equally important and arguably more insidious danger lies not in direct confrontation, but in systemic neglect. This is captured by the concept of the Kindleberger Trap, a condition in which global instability arises because the incumbent hegemon becomes unwilling or unable to provide essential international public goods, while the rising power is either unable or unwilling to assume that role.

Originally rooted in the work of economic historian Charles Kindleberger and later popularised in geopolitical discourse by political scientist Joseph Nye, the theory draws on the experience of the 1930s.