Warning signs were long there for Ukraine grain deal

THE Black Sea Grain Initiative was always a precarious arrangement.

The deal that the United Nations (UN) brokered between Russia and Ukraine – with Istanbul’s help – was instrumental in allowing about 33 million tonnes of food to be exported from Ukraine in the past 12 months. And it may have prevented an outbreak of famine in parts of Africa and in Afghanistan, because it pushed wheat, corn, cooking oil and fertiliser into world markets and forced down prices.

The deal came about when food prices rose because more than 22 million tonnes of grain intended for global markets was stranded in Ukraine, due to Russia’s naval blockade from the outbreak of the war till June last year. The UN and Turkey worked out an emergency accord meant to last 120 days. Signed on Jul 22, 2022, it was extended three more times until Jul 17 this year, when Russia said it was pulling out of the deal.