Watch the gold price as trade wars become the new statecraft

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s tariff war – now partially paused – is ostensibly to stop illegal immigration from Mexico and Canada and the smuggling of fentanyl via the two neighbours but ulimately from China. Given the circumstances – a sudden national emergency proclaimed over a decades-long problem – no one should discount the possibility that Trump’s real agenda may be far more ambitious. Canadians are talking about annexation.

America’s neighbours have duly fired back and negotiations seem under way. Tariff wars – current and those to come – will be rough and protracted.

In the meantime, watch the price of gold – it may turn out to be the real proxy for the global geopolitical outlook and the only accurate measure of general anxiety about the future. More on that below.