What 2026 holds for Asean on the US-China fault line

AT A time of growing geopolitical and economic disorder, South-east Asia faces a pivotal year. Three-and-a-half decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the post-Cold War vision of a stable, liberal global world order has been thoroughly tested and replaced by a complex reality.

The biggest game changer in global affairs since then is the rise of China as a nascent superpower, and the resulting rivalry with the US has made Asean the central stage for economic and political competition.

China’s rise and Asean

Beijing has now surpassed Washington as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity, and only last week became the first nation to report an astonishing trade surplus of more than US$1 trillion.