IN 1916, amid the horror of World War I, American economist John Bates Clark made an observation that remains all too relevant. “There are effects of war which are more tragic than the economic burden it will place on future generations,” he noted, “and there are some that are more morally revolting; but there are none which will last longer or do a greater total amount of harm.”

Fast-forward to Ukraine today. Even if Russia’s war of aggression were to end soon, the economic burden it has created will endure.

According to estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics, the damage done just to Ukraine’s infrastructure, as at September 2023, exceeds US$150 billion (at replacement cost), or roughly 85 per cent of the annual gross domestic product. The full cost of reconstruction will of course be much higher.