What to make of 2024

OUR pages have been full of suffering in 2024. War has raged on three continents: the world watched Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine most closely, but the fighting in Sudan was the most deadly. Storms, tempests, floods and fires have ruined lives, and taken them. All the while, the rivalry between countries siding with China and the American-led Western alliance has deepened, even as America has chosen as president a man whose commitment to that alliance is in doubt.

At first sight, therefore, 2024 has amplified a growing sense that the multilateral order which emerged from the second world war is coming apart. Increasingly, governments act as if might is right. Autocrats flout the rules and the Western powers that preach them are accused of double standards.

However, take a wider view, and 2024 holds a more hopeful message. It affirmed the resilience of capitalist democracies, including America’s. At the same time, it laid bare some of the weaknesses of autocracies, including China. There is no easy road back to the old order. But world wars happen when rising powers challenge those in decline. American strength not only sets an example; it also makes conflict less likely.