What will Trump’s victory mean for the climate?
The president-elect’s policies will mainly harm America, not the global energy transition
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ELECTIONS are supposed to clarify policy uncertainties, and, on the economic front, Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris has done just that. All three major US stock indices and US Treasury yields jumped the morning after Election Day, reflecting expectations of both strong economic growth and soaring debt and inflation.
On climate and (especially) environmental policy, another Trump presidency is clearly bad news, and it is exacerbated by extreme policy uncertainty and decidedly mixed signals, especially in cases where Trump may try to stand in the way of larger technological and market trends.
Consider electric vehicles (EVs). Casting himself as a champion of the internal combustion engine, Trump says he will eliminate tailpipe-emissions rules on “day one”. Doing so will be well within his power, and it may provide some life support for a waning industry. At the same time, Tesla’s stock jumped 15 per cent on the election news, with investors clearly betting the company will benefit from its chief executive officer, Elon Musk, having spent more than US$100 million of his own money to help elect Trump.
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