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Why the fragile US-Iran MOU won’t restart the rate-cut cycle

The interim agreement carries more risk than buoyant financial markets are generally pricing in

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    • A neighbourhood destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon's Tyre district. Key threats to the US-Iran deal include the non-trivial possibility that Israel may derail it.
    • A neighbourhood destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon's Tyre district. Key threats to the US-Iran deal include the non-trivial possibility that Israel may derail it. PHOTO: REUTERS

    Andrew Hammond

    Published Mon, Jun 22, 2026 · 07:00 AM

    MARKETS last week generally reacted positively to the announcement of the fragile US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU). However, key economic downside risks remain, especially given the non-trivial possibility that the deal frays or even collapses in the coming weeks.

    The 14-point MOU signed on Wednesday (Jun 17) has been criticised by politicians and some business stakeholders, especially within the shipping industry.

    Given the lack of clarity it contains, some have even called it a “memorandum of misunderstanding”.

    Iran warInterest ratesCentral banksGeopoliticsTrump administration

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