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Why I stopped making election forecasts

The shocks of recent times have shown the rational voter is a myth

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    • Psychologist Steven Pinker says we use rationality much more when running our own lives than when evaluating distant issues.
    • Psychologist Steven Pinker says we use rationality much more when running our own lives than when evaluating distant issues. PHOTO: NYTIMES

    Simon Kuper

    Published Fri, Oct 4, 2024 · 04:46 PM

    IN 2016, I was one of the fools who thought people wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump. As I explained to readers before the Republican primaries: “The electorate generally just wants a leader who appears sane, which is why Republicans almost certainly won’t nominate Trump.”

    I was taking my lead from so-called experts. “If you want to know the future,” I wrote in May that year, “the best forecasters are betting markets... The Oddschecker website, which compares odds offered by different bookmakers, indicates a chance of just over one in four that Brits will opt for Brexit. The chances of Trump becoming American president or Marine Le Pen (becoming) French president are judged a tad smaller.”

    This time, I won’t be making election forecasts.

    US politicsUS Presidential Election

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