Why my bearishness has been wrong so far

WITH the US Federal Reserve pausing its aggressive rate hiking cycle this past week, it seems appropriate to take stock of the bearish view this column has been expressing over the last several months.

On the face of it, I have not done well at all. The S&P 500 index closed on Friday (Jun 16) at 4,409.59. This was 14.8 per cent higher than where the benchmark US stock index ended last year, and 11.1 per cent above where it was just before the Fed began pushing rates up in March 2022.

In fact, the S&P 500 is now up 23.3 per cent from the closing low it set on Oct 12 last year – more than the 20 per cent rise that some market watchers say defines a bull market.