AS UK politics enters the relative calm of its traditional August break, there is in fact much frenetic activity underway, as the parties prepare for a general election expected next year.

A good metaphor to understand what is going on is a swan moving gracefully on a lake. Yet, what is hidden from the eye is all the activity going on beneath the water’s surface by the swan’s webbed feet, which propels the graceful motion.

For while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is currently on holiday in California, much advance work is well underway not just for the big ballot, but also a series of UK by-elections which follow on from the three in June.

Amid all the political uncertainty that the next few months will bring, there are growing signs that the next UK general election will see a big sea change, with the Conservatives likely to lose power after almost a decade and a half in government. Indeed, polls indicate that the Labour Party could possibly have its biggest electoral success since its landslide wins under Tony Blair in 1997 and Clement Atlee in 1945.

Take the example of the “Electoral Calculus” prediction tool, which currently indicates Labour winning some 464 seats at the general election, which would see a massive majority of almost 300. That forecast probably significantly exaggerates the eventual outcome, given that even the 1997 landslide (which saw a Labour majority of 179 when Blair became prime minister) and that of 1945 (a majority of 145 for then-premier Atlee), too, saw much smaller wins.

But even half the Electoral Calculus forecast majority would still be a historic victory for Labour – akin to the party’s biggest ever wins.

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It is possible that the national polls will tighten in coming months, of course. However, Labour is very likely to win more seats than the Conservatives, even if the size of victory is by no means assured to be on a historically epic scale.

Labour’s current lead reflects not just the success of its leader Keir Starmer in restoring confidence after the 2019 election, it also highlights the wide discontent with the Conservatives, who have ditched four prime ministers in the past seven years after Brexit and also the pandemic.

Increasingly, it appears as if Sunak’s position is comparable to that of then prime minister John Major prior to the 1997 election. Around a year and a half before that 1997 election, the Conservative standing in the polls was as low as it is today, notwithstanding the economy being in much better health. By the time the general election came, the Conservatives had regained modest support, but not nearly enough to keep hold of power, winning only 165 seats (significantly higher than the 111 Electoral Calculus forecast for the Conservatives at the next ballot), less than half the number it had in the previous parliament.

While it is by no means certain that Labour will win a historically huge majority, this possibility is already starting to impact UK politics. For instance, around 50 Conservative MPs have already announced their retirement.

Taken together, the political winds are therefore blowing strongly against the Conservatives winning a fifth straight term of office. While talk of a Labour landslide may yet evaporate, the party is very likely to win the most seats of any party for the first time since 2005.