Will 2026 see showdown between big game and indie publishers?
Smaller competitors have shone this year while heavyweights are down but not out
[SINGAPORE] The Game Awards, a glitzy annual event celebrating the industry’s best, announced on Nov 17 the six games nominated for its prestigious Game of the Year award.
The big surprise? Only three of them were from major publishers such as Sony and Nintendo. No nominee list has ever included so many indie titles – each year typically has one at most.
Two of the indie titles, Hades II and Hollow Knight: Silksong, were self-published while frontrunner Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 was published by Kepler Interactive, which is co-owned and run by a group of game developers (it also has an operations hub in Singapore).
Based on various estimates, it is likely none of these smaller titles had a budget exceeding US$30 million, while major, or AAA, games typically have budgets closer to US$100 million or more.
For context, Grand Theft Auto (GTA) VI, a game that is as big as they come, will cost developer Rockstar Games about US$1 billion to US$2 billion to make by the time it is released at the tail-end of 2026.
The success stories of these smaller teams and solo developers show that 2025 is the year of gamer pushback against corporate bloat in the industry, with many tiring of “forever games” designed to make gamers return for more, like zombies with wallets.
Instead, gamers embraced single-player “one and done” experiences such as the nominated indie titles. An Ampere Analysis survey released on Nov 17 backed this up – 56 per cent of the 3,400 gamers surveyed by the research company said they prefer single-player experiences to multiplayer despite the deluge of live-service multiplayer games such as Fortnite.
Cultural shifts aside, the business model of small game companies also increases their chances for success. Having leaner teams and shorter development cycles give them more agility and creative control, and they also get to keep more of the profits while having low, predictable fixed-costs.
Comparatively, ambitious bigger games have long development cycles of 10 years or more, and have an element of “big risk, big reward” – the payoff can set a company up with enough funds for a long time. If it does not, layoffs or even studio closures could ensue.
For example, Dragon Age: The Veilguard underperformed publisher Electronic Arts’ (EA) expectations by almost 50 per cent after taking almost a decade to make. EA proceeded to cut staff at the game’s developer, BioWare, while Dragon Age’s game director, Corinne Busche, also left. Combined with earlier layoffs, this left BioWare with less than 100 employees, compared to around 200 two years ago, Bloomberg reported.
Trouble in the land of giants
Besides failing to clear the basic hurdle of entertaining and enticing the audience, big game companies also face a wider issue: “financialisation” of the industry.
This refers to changes in corporate ownership and governance that have increased the influence of financial companies and investors within video game companies – particularly larger, listed ones.
Games are made to be more commodified and profit-driven, leading to trends such as “gacha games” that entice players to repeatedly spend money to receive random in-game items. Finance executives do not see a form of entertainment when they look at video games, they see a cash cow to milk.
As gamers start to realise this, apathy creeps in, setting the stage for smaller, more exciting games to take market – and mind – share.
Despite the lack of big money backing, smaller games have more than held their own, utilising democratised tools such as social media and the Steam platform on PC to market and publish their products.
Consider this year’s breakout star, Expedition 33, which sold more than five million copies. It won over gamers with its excellent visuals, music and innovative gameplay – all wrapped in a unique fantastical story coloured and inspired by French culture (a nod to the studio’s nationality). No surprise that its movie rights were snapped up before the game even launched in April 2025.
Expedition 33 leads the pack with a total of 12 nominations at The Game Awards – the most a title has ever received, but the other two indie nominees for Game of the Year are no slouches either. Both Hades II and Hollow Knight: Silksong are sequels to previous hits, and have six and five nominations, respectively.
These games are the tip of the spear for indie titles, which have experienced a renaissance this year. Countless others – including Peak, Blue Prince, RV There Yet?, Escape from Duckov, Ball x Pit and Absolum – have received acclaim and success.
Industry consolidation
These successes are happening amid a period of consolidation in the industry, which kicked into gear with Microsoft’s US$69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard in October 2023.
More recently, there was the US$55 billion leveraged buyout of EA by a group of investors including Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fund. Observers said that the deal, which would delist the gaming giant, is a sign of the industry’s struggle to find growth avenues.
Ubisoft is another major game company that is looking worse for wear. In a move driven by financial pressures, it spun off its most successful franchises, including Assassin’s Creed, in March, with Tencent investing 1.2 billion euros (S$1.8 billion) in the new unit. Ubisoft’s share price is down roughly 41.6 per cent year to date.
The many successes of indie games and the major failings of their large counterparts portends a potential major shift in the industry. There is still room for big-budget games – Battlefield 6 sold more than seven million copies despite costing S$100, and GTA VI looks to be a surefire success in 2026. However, that room is shrinking and being occupied by smaller, more agile competitors that focus on what customers want: pure fun.
Perhaps, Guillaume Broche, the chief executive officer and creative director of Sandfall Interactive, expressed it best when discussing the firm’s philosophy: “We just want it to feel authentic, and made with love.”
Gamers have spoken with their wallets, and the industry would do well to listen.
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