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Will AI be an economic net positive? Probably not

It’s hard to see how AI’s effects will cure the US government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory

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    • No doubt, AI is important. Yet it’s unlikely to dramatically change the nation’s long-term economic outlook.
    • No doubt, AI is important. Yet it’s unlikely to dramatically change the nation’s long-term economic outlook. PHOTO: PIXABAY

    DeeperDive is a beta AI feature. Refer to full articles for the facts.

    Bill Dudley

    Published Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · 03:33 PM

    THE boom in artificial-intelligence (AI) investment is undoubtedly boosting both the US stock market and the broader economy right now. But what about the longer term? Will AI be a big net positive, delivering prosperity and solving the nation’s fiscal problems?

    Most likely, I’m sorry to say, it’ll be closer to a wash.

    To assess AI’s longer-run implications for the economic outlook, one must consider three questions:

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    Artificial IntelligenceUS economyProductivityEmploymentInterest rates

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