Will Americans even notice an improving economy?

IMAGINE that your picture of the United States economy came entirely from headlines and cable news chyrons. Would you know that real gross domestic product has risen 6.7 per cent under President Joe Biden, that America gained 4.5 million jobs in 2022, and that inflation over the past six months, which was indeed high last winter, was less than 2 per cent at an annual rate?

This isn’t a hypothetical question. Most people don’t read long-form, data-driven essays on the economic outlook. Their sense of the economy is more likely to be shaped by snippets they read or hear.

And there is a yawning gulf between public perceptions and economic reality. Recent economic data has been positive all around. Yet a plurality of adults believes that we’re in a recession. In an AP-NORC survey, three-quarters of Americans described the economy as “poor”, with only 25 per cent saying it was “good”.