World powers focus on resource-rich Central Asia

HALFORD MacKinder, a founding father of geopolitics, claimed more than a century ago that the country which controls Central Asia and neighbouring nations shall be the “empire of the world”.

Fast forward to 2025 and the enduring relevance of MacKinder’s words are seen in the growing great power economic rivalry in the region fuelled by its resource richness.

Today, Central Asia has major environmental challenges and a poor human rights record. Yet, China, Russia, Japan, the United States and Europe are some of the key powers devoting more focus to the region owing in large part to its abundance of critical minerals for clean energy technologies.

Take the example of Central Asia’s huge endowments of natural mineral resources. This includes around 40 per cent of global supplies of manganese ore, 30 per cent of chromium, 20 per cent of lead, and 10 per cent of titanium.

Russia’s interest in the region is long-standing and, of course, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are now members or associate members of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Since the end of the Cold War, however, China has increasingly challenged for influence in Central Asia, including through its Belt and Road agenda. Beijing has become the region’s leading trade partner with two-way trade totalling around 95 billion euros (S$137.9 billion) in 2024.

Regional influence

Moscow remains very much in the game of regional influence, however, including in energy politics. In 2023, for instance Russia intensified exports of gas to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan after demand fell from Europe after the Ukraine war began.

While Russia and China, which share an agenda of promoting political stability of the region’s regimes, have the upper economic hand in the region, there is a narrowing window of opportunity for other powers to deepen ties too.

This was shown last year when Kazakhstan refused to apply for full membership in the Brics, despite encouragement from Russia and China, and only later agreed with Uzbekistan to accept partner status. This shows how much Central Asian leaderships want to engage a wide range of powers, not just Moscow and Beijing.

The Central Asia agenda promoted by other powers including Europe, the United States and Japan focuses more on democracy promotion and regional economic integration.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for instance, Europe’s interest in Central Asia has intensified in a bid to diversify global supply chains, including for the green and digital transitions that will power future prosperity.

This EU-driven agenda will be showcased on Thursday and Friday (April 3-4) when the bloc hosts its first ever summit with Central Asia. This event builds from the European Union’s strategy toward Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan that was first formulated in 2007, almost two decades ago.

The agenda this week will be focused around four key areas of the EU’s Global Gateway scheme. This initiative will disburse some 300 billion euros across the world in the period to 2027 in several key areas, including sustainable energy, critical raw materials, digital connectivity and transport.

Key EU Global Gateway commitments so far to Central Asia include the digital transformation of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan‘s economic enhancement, including helping it join the World Trade Organization, and comprehensive education reform in Tajikistan.

Forum on infrastructure

On the transport front, an Investors Forum for EU-Central Asia Connectivity has been held on infrastructure. Since 2022, the EU has pushed a major Trans-Caspian International Transport Route land and sea initiative (also called the Middle Corridor) to boost its presence in the region which traverses not only Central Asia, but also the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey.

While the Middle Corridor is not yet a serious competitor to the longstanding Northern Route, which passes through Russia, the EU is investing much in it to change that, including 10 billion euros in 2024.

Already, the Middle Corridor is attracting growing commercial interest. Earlier this year, for instance, Danish shipping company Maersk completed its first dispatch from Japan to Europe via the transport network.

Already, the EU is Kazakhstan’s leading trade and investment partner with bilateral trade reaching around 50 billion euros. The last couple of decades has also seen around 200 billion euros in foreign direct investment from the EU to the wider region.

Monies from the EU have been buttressed by other European governments and wider bodies, including the European Investment Bank (EIB) and European Bank on Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

For instance, the EIB has signed an agreement with the Development Bank of Kazakhstan for a 200 million euros framework loan for sustainable projects. Meanwhile, the EBRD recently agreed on a 20-million-euros deal with Tajikistan to enhance the nation’s energy infrastructure and boost renewables.

Forging close ties

It is not just the EU, but also individual member states including Germany and France, forging close ties with Central Asia. Kazakhstan is, for instance, the biggest producer of uranium in the world with over 40 per cent of world supply. Amidst competition with Russia for these resources, France wants to engage more on this agenda given the importance of nuclear to its economy.

Under the Biden administration, the United States held its first summit with Central Asia under the so-called C5+1 format with Washington also throwing its support behind the Middle Corridor project.

While it is not fully clear yet how much emphasis new US President Donald Trump will give to the region, his “America First” agenda will surely also see him seeking to secure a greater share of Central Asia’s natural resource wealth.

Japan is also doubling down on ties with the region via a “Central Asia plus Japan” dialogue. Japan has a positive reputation in the region, and has been a significant donor of aid for much of the post-Cold War period.

Yet another power jockeying for position in Central Asia is Turkey which has a common Islamic religion heritage with the region.

The Organisation of Turkic states also includes Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

One of Turkey’s recent initiatives in the region is a new natural gas deal that will see Turkmenistan ship natural gas via Iran. Gas supplies under the contract began to Turkey on Mar 1.

Taken together, the EU will seek to show this week that its first summit with Central Asia is not too little, too late. Unquestionably, Russia and China have the upper economic hand in the region, but competition is only likely to intensify with growing interest from other powers including the US, Japan and Turkey all seeking to tap the region’s resource richness.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics