Britain after Brexit: UK forecasters have got it wrong

London

IN early June, the average forecast for UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2017, according to a survey conducted by the UK Treasury, was 2.1 per cent. The July post-referendum forecast cut this to 0.5 per cent. In August, the forecast bounced back a smidgeon to 0.7 per cent. With half the year almost over before the June 23 referendum decision to leave the European Union, the revision to 2016 growth was modest, to 1.6 per cent from 1.8 per cent.

When year-on-year changes are converted to a quarterly path, in early August the crème de la crème of UK forecasters were still expecting a post-referendum recession. So far, the hard evidence suggests that they have got it wrong.