Could Labour score surprise election win?

WITH a week to go before the Dec 12 general election in the United Kingdom, polls appear to be tightening. While the Conservatives are still forecast to emerge as the largest single party in the new House of Commons, potentially with only the party's second overall majority since John Major's 1992 victory, it remains plausible that a minority Labour government could yet emerge.

To be sure, the odds of a Labour overall majority are very small, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson could yet be turfed out of power if polls narrow further, and there are unprecedented levels of tactical voting, potentially producing a second successive hung Parliament. The Tories are therefore seeking to run a "safety-first" campaign in the final days, seeking to avoid the mistakes made by Theresa May in 2017 when she lost a double-digit lead in the second half of that election.

The fact that the Tories have held a polling lead since the summer underlines the clear shift in the landscape since Mr Johnson became prime minister in July - from summer 2017 to summer 2019, Labour held the ruling party to more-or-less level-pegging. So unless all the scores of polls in the second half of the year are completely inaccurate, it therefore seems that the Conservatives will emerge as the largest party in the Commons for the fourth successive time.